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January 21, 2022The Latest on Consumption Megatrend

In December 2021, the Commonwealth Transportation Board (CTB) adopted the Policy for Development and Monitoring of VTrans Risk & Opportunity Register. OIPI will provide an annual update on the identified risks and opportunities. Please utilize InteractVTrans DataExplorer to view and download jurisdiction-specific data.

VTrans Megatrend 3: Consumption Patterns

VTrans identifies Changes in Consumption Patterns as one of four megatrends (powerful and transformative forces) that will impact the Commonwealth’s future transportation network. Changes in Consumption Patterns are being shaped by the following two transportation macrotrends (emerging patterns of change):
  • Growth in e-commerce
  • Greater automation of production and services

Three scenarios (low, medium, high) reflect uncertainty regarding forecasts. The policy relies on cumulative impacts of this and other macrotrends to identify risks and opportunities to the Commonwealth’s transportation system.

Macrotrend # 5: Growth in E-commerce

The leading factors for the growth in e-commerce include convenience and customer expectations, willingness to pay for delivery services, and willingness to pay for shipping services. The following chart shows the projected market share of e-commerce in a medium-impact scenario.


E-commerce Market Share of Business-to-Business (B2B) and Business-to-Consumer (B2C) trade, Medium Impact Scenario, 2045

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Macrotrend # 6: Greater Automation of Production and Services

The leading factors for greater automation of production and services include growth of the e-commerce, expanded use of just-in-time production, machine learning and artificial intelligence, and digitization of production and distribution. The following chart shows the projected market share of 3D printing output and drone deliveries in a medium-impact scenario.


Market Shares of 3D Printing Output and Drone Deliveries, Medium Impact Scenario, 2045

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Cumulative Impacts of Mega and Macrotrends on Virginia’s Transportation Goals

Cumulative impacts and the resulting risks and opportunities this and other Macrotrends are available on this webpage: Policy for Development and Monitoring of VTrans Risk & Opportunity Register. Please refer to the following resources for more information:

Noteworthy Items

  • The intent is to prepare, not predict. This risk-based approach allows for identification and analysis of a range of potential impacts to help determine temporal proximity and relative priority.
  • Policy drivers can modify trends to achieve more desirable outcomes.
  • The Policy for Development and Monitoring of VTrans Risk & Opportunity Register allows for monitoring and annual reporting of these trends.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Looking for more specific information about the Policy for the Development and Monitoring of VTrans Long-term Risk & Opportunity Register? Find more information on our Frequently Asked Questions page