VTrans is Virginia's Transportation Plan. It is prepared for the Commonwealth Transportation Board by the Office of Intermodal Planning and Investment.

Long-term Risk & Opportunity Register

VTrans Long-term Planning focuses on the development and monitoring of a Long-term Transportation Risk & Opportunity Register. A methodical and systematic monitoring of Long-term risks and opportunities allows Virginia to be better prepared to achieve the Commonwealth Transportation Board’s Vision for Transportation.

Background

No one can predict the future. But there are actions that can be taken in a gradual and systematic manner to help prepare the Commonwealth for challenges and opportunities affecting how people and goods will move in the future.

VTrans, as the state’s transportation plan, develops and monitors a Long-term Risk & Opportunity Register, which is based on a range of scenarios to account for uncertainty. In this case, scenarios that could have positive outcomes or results are called opportunities, and those that could have negative outcomes or results are called risks. This register helps document and highlight areas requiring attention from different agencies and departments to ensure a common direction to meeting the CTB Goals.

The register is developed based on the steps outlined below, and has a time horizon of 20-plus years. Because of the longer-term context, the register does not pinpoint specific needs for specific projects. Rather, communicates the policy areas of focus based on an assessment of the key trends that can affect demand for travel and how people and goods will move in the future.

Importance of Identifying Long-term Risks and Opportunities

The VTrans Long-term Risk & Opportunity Register helps inform the development of VTrans Strategic Actions that focus on policy and funding allocation considerations. This is a critically important exercise with a potential to shape transportation policy in the years ahead.

Method for the Development of VTrans Long-term Needs

Four Megatrends and Ten Macrotrends are identified based on literature review.

Megatrend 1: Climate Patterns

  • Macrotrend 1: Increase in Flooding Risk

Megatrend 2: Technological Advancements

  • Macrotrend 2: Adoption of Highly Autonomous Vehicle
  • Macrotrend 3: Adoption of Electric Vehicles
  • Macrotrend 4: Growth in Shared Mobility

Megatrend 3: Evolving Consumption Patters

  • Macrotrend 5: Growth in E-Commerce
  • Macrotrend 6: Greater Automation of Goods and Services

Megatrend 4: Socio-Demographic Changes

  • Macrotrend 7: Increase in Workplace Flexibility
  • Macrotrend 8: Growth of Professional Service Industry
  • Macrotrend 9: Growth of the 65+ Cohort
  • Macrotrend 10: Population and Employment Shift
Surrogate Measures are established for each VTrans Goal to allow for quantification of macrotrend impacts

  • Surrogate for Goal A: Vehicles Miles Traveled
  • Surrogate for Goal B: Non-SOV Mode Share
  • Surrogate for Goal C: Safety
  • Surrogate for Goal D: Transportation System Preservation
  • Surrogate for Goal E: Tailpipe Emissions
  • In Step 3, three scenarios (low, medium (most likely), and high) estimating the impact the 10 macrotrends identified in Step 1 on the surrogates for CTB priorities (Step 2) are developed.
    OrderMacrotrend (in the order of impact)VMT% Non-SOV TripsFatal and Serious Injury CrashesTransportation System PreservationTons of On-Road Emissions
    AMacrotrend 1: Increase in Flooding Risk
    BMacrotrend 9: Growth of the 65+ CohortImpacts are part of the baseline assumptions
    CMacrotrend 7: Increasing Job Flexibility
    Macrotrend 2: Adoption of Highly Autonomous Vehicles
    Macrotrend 3: Adoption of Electric Vehicles
    Macrotrend 4: Growth in Shared Mobility
    DMacrotrend 6: Greater Automation of Goods and Services
    Macrotrend 5: Growth in E-commerce
    EMacrotrend 8: Growth of Professional Services IndustryImpacts are either reallocate impacts within state or part of the baseline assumptions
    Macrotrend 10: Population and Employment Shift
    A Long-term Risk & Opportunity Register is developed based on the guidance from CTB members, stakeholders, and subject-matter experts to help organize and communicate a common understanding of risks and opportunities and to ensure a common strategy to meet the CTB Goals. For the purpose of this register, the following definitions are used:

    • Risks: Uncertainties that could have negative outcomes
    • Opportunities: Uncertainties that could have positive outcomes

    The VTrans Risk & Opportunity Register includes the following:

    • Impact: Estimated impact on CTB Goals in the event of occurrence
    • Proximity: Temporal dimension of risk or opportunity
    • Priority: Assigned relative priority for the CTB accounting for probability, impact and proximity.
    VTrans Trend Trackers are identified to provide updates to the CTB on VTrans Macrotrends as well as any changes to the items identified in the VTrans Risk and Opportunity Register once per calendar year in July or September.

    Macrotrend #1: Increase in Flooding Risk

    • Number of directional miles at-risk from sea-level rise
    • Number of directional miles at-risk from storm surge
    • Number of directional miles at-risk from inland/riverine flooding

    Macrotrend #2:Adoption of Highly Autonomous Vehicles

    • Market Penetration of Semi-Autonomous (Levels 1 and 2) Vehicles
    • Attitude and Preferences for Adoption of Semi-Autonomous (Levels 1 and 2) Vehicles
    • Market Penetration of Highly Autonomous (Levels 3 and 4) Vehicles
    • Attitude and Preferences for Adoption of Highly Autonomous (Levels 3 and 4) Vehicles

    Macrotrend #3: Adoption of Electric Vehicles

    • Number of Electric Vehicles
    • Market Penetration of Electric Vehicles
    • Attitude and Preferences for Adoption of Electric Vehicles

    Macrotrend #4: Growth in Shared Mobility

    • Access to Shared Mobility Services
    • Utilization of Shared Mobility Services by Type

    Macrotrend #5: Growth in E-commerce

    • Number of Warehouse and Distribution Centers
    • Square Footage of Warehouse and Distribution Centers
    • Share of E-commerce Sales (Business-to-business, business-to-customers)
    • Number of Jobs in Goods Movement Dependent Industries

    Macrotrend #6: Greater Automation of Production and Services

    • Value output of 3D Printing
    • Number of short-range drone deliveries
    • Number of long-range drone deliveries

    Macrotrend #7: Increase in Workplace Flexibility

    • Number of Workers with Workplace Flexibility
    • Utilization of Workplace Flexibility

    Macrotrend #8: Growth of Professional Service Industry

    • Share of Professional Service Industry
    • Number of STEM Jobs

    Macrotrend #9: Growth of the Age 65+ Cohort

    • Number of Virginians with Age 65 or higher
    • Share of Age 65+ Cohort

    Macrotrend #10: Population and Employment Shift

    • VTrans Land Use Vitality (LUV) Index
    • Population
    • Employment
    • Income

    Policy for the Development and Monitoring of the VTrans Long-term Risk & Opportunity Register

    Chapter 6 of the VTrans Policy Guide contains the draft policy to develop and monitor the risk & opportunity register. A companion document, the Technical Guide, is developed for planners, engineers, and other professionals interested in the data sources, processes, and methods used to implement the CTB’s policies.

    Frequently Asked Questions

    Looking for more specific information about the VTrans mid-term needs? Find more information on our Frequently Asked Questions page.

    How to get involved

    The VTrans team will be working on the policy for the Development and Monitoring of the VTrans Long-term Risk & Opportunity Register through Fall 2021. An online webinar is planned for stakeholder engagement.

    • Subscribe to our Newsletter or revisit this web page for updated information
    • Visit the Meetings page to find presentations and events in your area
    • Contact us for more information