VTrans is Virginia's Transportation Plan. It is prepared for the Commonwealth Transportation Board by the Office of Intermodal Planning and Investment.

VTrans Megatrend 1: Climate

In the first step for the Draft Policy for the Development and Monitoring of VTrans Risk & Opportunity Register VTrans identifies four Megatrends (ClimateTechnologyConsumption, and Socio-Demographics). This webpage focuses on Megatrend # 1: Climate, which includes the following Macrotrend.

  • Increase in Flooding Risk due to sea level rise, storm surge, and inland/riverine flooding

This macrotrend is also reviewed as a part of the VTrans Vulnerability Assessment (see below).

Given the uncertainty, three estimates (High, Medium, and Low) are developed for each of the Macrotrends. Cumulative impacts of these three and other macrotrends are estimated in Step 3 of the policy.

Macrotrend # 1: Increase in Flooding Risk

Macrotrend Drivers

  • Emissions of heat-trapping gases

Number of Roadways At Risk from Flooding


Methodology and Results

The VTrans Vulnerability Assessment focuses on flooding risks associated with three hazards: (1) sea level rise; (2) storm surge; and, (3) inland/riverine flooding.

Basemaps

Interactive map intended for larger browser screens

What It Means for the Transportation System (In Isolation)

The projected increases in flooding risk are estimated to impact nearly 1,100 directional roadway miles due to sea level rise, 13,100 directional miles due to storm surge, and 17,900 directional miles due to inland/riverine flooding in the medium scenario.

Please refer to the following resources for more information:

VTrans Vulnerability Assessment Interactive Weighting Tool

The Vulnerability Assessment results represent the approach best suited for a screening level assessment of the vulnerability of Virginia’s transportation system to current and future flood hazards. Recognizing that users and intended purposes vary, the VTrans Vulnerability Assessment Weighting Tool was developed to allow for customized weightings to be applied in real time.

Hazard

Sea-level Rise

Scenario

Intermediate-High Scenario

Select weights for the following three components ensuring the total adds up to 100%

Exposure

Sensitivity

Adaptive Capacity

Interactive map intended for larger browser screens

  VTrans Vulnerability Assessment Interactive Weighting Tool Methodology

Cumulative Impacts of these Macrotrends on Virginia’s Transportation Goals

Cumulative impacts of this and other macrotrends are identified in Step 3 of the Policy for Development and Monitoring of VTrans Risk & Opportunity Register.

Refer to the Long-term Risk & Opportunity Register page for more information.

Noteworthy Items

  • The intent is to prepare, not predict. This risk-based approach allows for identification and analysis of a range of potential impacts to help determine temporal proximity and relative priority.
  • Policy drivers can modify trends to achieve more desirable outcomes.
  • The Policy for Development and Monitoring of VTrans Risk & Opportunity Register allows for monitoring and annual reporting of these trends.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Looking for more specific information about the Draft Policy for Development and Monitoring of VTrans Long-term Risk & Opportunity Register? Find more information on our Frequently Asked Questions page