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January 21, 2022The Latest on Climate Megatrend

In December 2021, the Commonwealth Transportation Board (CTB) adopted the Policy for Development and Monitoring of VTrans Risk & Opportunity Register. OIPI will provide an annual update on the identified risks and opportunities. Please utilize InteractVTrans DataExplorer to view and download jurisdiction-specific data.

VTrans Megatrend 1: Climate

VTrans identifies Climate as one of four megatrends (powerful and transformative force) that will impact the Commonwealth’s future transportation network. Increased flooding risk due to sea level rise, storm surge, and inland flooding is a likely climate hazard.

Three scenarios (low, medium, high) reflect uncertainty regarding forecasts. The policy relies on cumulative impacts of this and other macrotrends to identify risks and opportunities to the Commonwealth’s transportation system.

Macrotrend # 1: Increase in Flooding Risk

The following chart illustrates the number of roadway miles at risk from flooding by hazard type in the Medium Impact Scenario. The interactive map shows three scenarios developed for each of the three hazards.

VTrans Macrotrend 1: Flooding Risk Assessment Technical Memorandum includes additional information and the model’s methodology.

Number of Roadways At Risk from Flooding

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To query, print, download, or comment, visit InteractVTrans MapExplorer. For interactive infographics, visit InteractVTrans DataExplorer

Cumulative Impacts of Mega and Macrotrends on Virginia’s Transportation Goals

Cumulative impacts and the resulting risks and opportunities this and other Macrotrends are available on this webpage: Policy for Development and Monitoring of VTrans Risk & Opportunity Register. Please refer to the following resources for more information:

Noteworthy Items

  • The intent is to prepare, not predict. This risk-based approach allows for identification and analysis of a range of potential impacts to help determine temporal proximity and relative priority.
  • Policy drivers can modify trends to achieve more desirable outcomes.
  • The Policy for Development and Monitoring of VTrans Risk & Opportunity Register allows for monitoring and annual reporting of these trends.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Looking for more specific information about the Policy for Development and Monitoring of VTrans Long-term Risk & Opportunity Register? Find more information on our Frequently Asked Questions page