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January 21, 2022The Latest on Socio-demographics Megatrend

In December 2021, the Commonwealth Transportation Board (CTB) adopted the Policy for Development and Monitoring of VTrans Risk & Opportunity Register. OIPI will provide an annual update on the identified risks and opportunities. Please utilize InteractVTrans DataExplorer to view and download jurisdiction-specific data.

VTrans Megatrend 4: Socio-Demographics

VTrans Policy for the Development and Monitoring of Long-term Risk & Opportunity Register identifies four Megatrends (Climate, Technological Advancements, Consumption Patterns, and Socio-Demographic Changes). This web page focuses on Megatrend # 4: Socio-demographic Changes that includes the following Macrotrends.
  • Growth of Professional Services Industry
  • Increase in Workplace Flexibility
  • Growth of the 65+ Cohort
  • Population and Employment Shift

There is significant uncertainty around the forecasts; therefore, three scenarios - High, Medium, and Low Impacts - are developed for each Macrotrend. Finally, cumulative impacts of this and other macrotrends are estimated in Step 3 of the policy (web page).

Macrotrend # 7: Growth of Professional Services Industry

The drivers of this macrotrend include (1) service economy; and (2) digitization of the economy. The following chart shows the projected job share of the professional and technical services jobs as a share of total regional jobs.


Professional and Technical Services Jobs Share of Total Jobs by Region, Medium Impact Scenario, 2045

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Macrotrend # 8: Increase in Workplace Flexibility

The drivers of this macrotrend include (1) advancement of communication technology; (2) availability, reliability, and speed of broadband services; and (3) growth of professional services industry. The following map shows the total number of jobs with workplace flexibility as a share of total regional jobs in a medium impact scenario.


Jobs with Workplace Flexibility as the Share of Regional Total Jobs, Medium Impact Scenario, 2045

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Macrotrend #9: Growth of the 65+ Cohort

The drivers of this macrotrend include (1) migration patterns; (2) locational preferences; (3) medical advancements; and (4) overall population growth. The following chart shows the projected change in share of population over age 65.


Projected Change in the Share of 65+ Population Cohort, 2017-2045

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Macrotrend # 10: Population and Employment Shift

The drivers of this macrotrend include (1) natural hazards; and (2) locational preferences of businesses and households. The following chart shows the projected change in population and employment between 2017 and 2045.


Projected Change in Population and Employment, 2017-2045

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Cumulative Impacts of Mega and Macrotrends on Virginia’s Transportation Goals

Cumulative impacts and the resulting risks and opportunities this and other Macrotrends are available on this webpage: Policy for Development and Monitoring of VTrans Risk & Opportunity Register. Please refer to the following resources for more information:

Noteworthy Items

  • The intent is to prepare, not predict. This risk-based approach allows for identification and analysis of a range of potential impacts to help determine temporal proximity and relative priority.
  • Policy drivers can modify trends to achieve more desirable outcomes.
  • The Policy for Development and Monitoring of VTrans Risk & Opportunity Register allows for monitoring and annual reporting of these trends.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Looking for more specific information about the Policy for the Development and Monitoring of VTrans Long-term Risk & Opportunity Register? Find more information on our Frequently Asked Questions page