Alternative Future And Needs

Exploratory scenario planning is a tool for dealing with uncertainty that involves planning for a wide range of plausible futures so as to prepare for a wide range of impacts. Change is inevitable, but not always easy to predict in today's world.

Alternative Future And Needs

Exploratory scenario planning is a tool for dealing with uncertainty that involves planning for a wide range of plausible futures so as to prepare for a wide range of impacts. Change is inevitable, but not always easy to predict in today's world.

Major shifts and disruptions are occurring rapidly across the spectrum of factors that affect transportation supply and demand, from demographic and economic conditions to new transportation technologies and shifts in the natural environment. Exploratory scenario planning is a tool for dealing with these kinds of uncertainties. By creating and analyzing the possible impacts from a several potential alternative futures, planners can prepare for a wide range of issues and opportunities and identify strategies or policies that put the Commonwealth in the best position to achieve its goals while adjusting to gradual changes or sudden shifts.

The alternative future scenarios will be plausible, grounded in data, and inform the identification of a range of long-term needs to help ensure that Virginia's future transportation investments, policies, and direction are resilient to variable change.

Three (3) alternative future scenarios will be developed to allow the Commonwealth Transportation Board to visualize the variation between the scenarios, the uncertainty/probability associated with each scenario, associated investment needs, and their impact on the Commonwealth's preparedness for societal, economic, technological, and environmental changes.

The scenarios will attempt to account for scheduled future events and dependent or reactive outcomes of independent drivers. The scenarios should be developed to illustrate high probability or high impact changes, or changes that may not be easily perceived today.

It is envisioned that each scenario will present issues that can only be addressed by a unique set of transportation needs. Please visit this web page in 2020 for more information.